Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the world has witnessed a brutal conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and displaced millions. While at first glance it appears to be a war between Russia and Ukraine, the roots of the conflict run much deeper. In reality, it is the result of decades of unresolved tensions between Russia and the West, particularly NATO. To understand why Russia invaded Ukraine, we must look at Russia’s repeated warnings against NATO’s eastward expansion—warnings that the West ignored.

NATO’s eastward expansion: Broken Promises?

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia found itself facing a new world order. Many hoped that this could lead to closer cooperation between Russia and the West, but instead, NATO began to expand eastward. For Russia, which has historically been deeply concerned with securing its borders and maintaining strategic buffer zones, this expansion was seen as a serious threat.

During his speech at the Munich Security Conference on February 10, 2007, Vladimir Putin made it clear that Russia had repeatedly asked the West to respect its boundaries and honor the agreements made at the end of the Cold War. He specifically referenced a statement made by NATO’s then-Secretary General, Manfred Woerner, in 1990, where Woerner said: “The fact that we are ready not to place a NATO army outside German territory gives the Soviet Union firm security guarantees.” Putin asked pointedly: “Where are those guarantees?” This question underscored Russia’s sense of betrayal, as NATO not only stationed troops in Eastern Europe after 1990 but also integrated countries like Poland, Hungary, and the Baltic states into the alliance.

From Russia’s perspective, NATO’s expansion violated the verbal assurances given at the end of the Cold War. Although no formal written agreement was signed, Russia considered these verbal commitments to be binding. Putin’s 2007 speech served as a clear warning that Russia would no longer stand by while NATO moved closer to its borders.

Russia and NATO: deteriorating relations

Russia’s relationship with NATO has long been marked by mistrust, and NATO’s expansion is viewed by Russia as a direct threat. It’s important to understand that Russia had repeatedly sought closer relations with NATO. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia tried to find its place in the new global order, and in the early 2000s, Vladimir Putin even expressed interest in closer cooperation with the alliance. However, this interest was never reciprocated by NATO.

At the Munich Security Conference in 2007, Putin made it clear that Russia could no longer sit passively while NATO moved closer to its borders. He criticized the West for disregarding Russia’s security concerns and warned that Russia would take the necessary steps to protect its interests. This was a foreshadowing of the escalations that would unfold in the following years.

Ukraine as a battleground in the power struggle

One of the key reasons for the current war is Russia’s fear that Ukraine could join NATO. For years, Ukraine has been moving toward closer integration with the West, and at the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008, it was declared that both Ukraine and Georgia could eventually become NATO members. For Russia, this was a red line. NATO forces stationed in Ukraine would mean that Russia had a hostile military alliance right on its doorstep—an intolerable situation for Moscow.

After Ukraine’s 2014 revolution and the country’s turn toward a more pro-Western orientation, Russia’s opposition intensified. Crimea was annexed, and pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine received Moscow’s backing. From Russia’s perspective, these moves were necessary to prevent Ukraine from fully aligning itself with NATO.

Russia feels encircled

Putin’s 2007 speech in Munich provides clear insight into how Russia views geopolitical developments. He accused the West of trying to establish a unipolar world dominated by NATO and the United States. From Moscow’s perspective, NATO’s continuous expansion was seen as a deliberate strategy to contain Russia and diminish its influence.

In his speech, Putin repeatedly emphasized that Russia did not seek conflict but could not allow itself to be cornered. He pointed out how Russia had repeatedly raised concerns, only for the West to ignore them. This has led to a situation where Russia believes it has no choice but to act.

The peace process: a forgotten option

One of the most troubling aspects of this conflict is that Western governments—including the EU and Denmark—seem to have shown little interest in a genuine peace process. Instead, they continue to beat the drums of war, pushing for more military aid to Ukraine. It almost feels as if they want the war to continue at any cost until Russia is completely driven out of the equation. This attitude is deeply troubling and suggests that diplomacy and peace are no longer a priority.

Even more concerning is the way countries that have called for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are often branded as “Putin’s allies.” Rather than recognizing that a peaceful resolution is in everyone’s interest, peace proposals are met with suspicion and outright rejection.

A striking example of this is the peace agreement that was accepted by both Ukraine and Russia during negotiations in Turkey early in the war. This agreement could have been a step toward resolving the conflict, but it was quickly discarded after a visit from British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who reportedly urged Ukraine to withdraw from the talks. This incident illustrates how opportunities for peace have been undermined by external powers determined to see the war continue.

A stalemate with no will for peace

The war rages on, and it seems that from the Western side, there is more interest in prolonging the conflict than in finding a peaceful solution. Russia sees it as essential to defend its strategic interests, while the West continues to support Ukraine in its fight for sovereignty and self-determination. With diplomacy sidelined and military escalation growing, a swift resolution to the conflict seems out of reach.

Ultimately, the war in Ukraine is a reflection of deep-seated tensions that have been building for decades. It is a conflict that goes far beyond Ukraine itself and into the heart of Russia’s relationship with NATO and the West. Right now, there seems to be little willingness to end the war, and the conflict continues to threaten Europe’s stability.